Michigan-Penn State scouting report, prediction
Matchup: Michigan 1-2; No. 10 Penn State 3-0.
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m., tomorrow, Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor.
TV/radio: ABC (Channel 7 in Detroit).
Line: Penn State by 2 1/2.
Injuries: Michigan — K Bryan Wright (undisclosed), WR Junior Hemingway (undisclosed), probable; QB Chad Henne (knee), DT Marques Slocum (off-field), questionable; RB Kevin Grady (knee), out. Penn State — S Tony Davis (shoulder), probable; OG John Shaw, questionable; CB Willie Harriott (suspension), DT Abe Koroma (foot), out.
When Michigan has the ball: The Wolverines have moved the ball well in all three games, but they were terrible finishing drives against Oregon. That issue appeared solved against Notre Dame, but the competition level will be higher today against Penn State. Like last week, U-M will try to run Mike Hart as much as possible to take the pressure off freshman quarterback Ryan Mallett. Coach Lloyd Carr didn’t dismiss the possibility of Chad Henne’s return from a knee sprain this week, but that probably won’t happen. Ryan Mallett showed a fine touch on his final two touchdown passes last week against Notre Dame and stood in the pocket facing a rush on the crossing touchdown to Greg Mathews. The Nittany Lions are tied for the national lead in sacks with 17, so Ryan Mallett will have to keep his composure when the rush is on. Mike Hart will carry the load until Penn State denies him — with eight defenders in the box it’s possible, if not likely — but U-M’s QB will have to hit a few big gainers to keep the Nittany Lions from crowding the line of scrimmage. Penn State is allowing just 17.7 rushing yards per game, best in the nation. The Lions have a veteran secondary, led by safety Anthony Scirrotto and cornerback Justin King, though King was burned a few times by Buffalo last week. Penn State may also have the conference’s best linebacker in Dan Connor.
When Penn State has the ball: The Nittany Lions have a major talent at quarterback in senior Anthony Morelli, who has thrown eight touchdowns and only one interception in three games. His strong arm will surely be called upon to connect with his impressive wideout collection of Derrick Williams (who also has a punt return for a TD this year), Deon Butler and Jordan Norwood, who made the season’s best catch last week, laying on his back. Morelli’s greatest improvement this season has come in the red zone, where Penn State is 17-of-18 with 14 touchdowns. Yet with a big-gun quarterback and impressive wideouts, the Lions have yet to air it out. They’ve relied on an average running game that splits carries between Austin Scott and the emerging Rodney Kinlaw, who scored twice last week. Michigan’s impressive defense last week emerged from a dominant pass rush with only moderate blitzing. U-M’s defensive line could find an opening today, as it likely faces freshman guard Stefen Winiewski (filling in for the injured John Shaw).
Prediction: Penn State 25, Michigan 21.
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